ITPNZ rejects 'unreliable enrolment statistics' claim

Posted By TEU on Jul 16, 2009 |

Tertiary Update Volume 12 Number 22

ITPNZ’s executive director, Dave Guerin, has criticised minister of education Anne Tolley’s dismissal of her own ministry’s April 2009 tertiary education enrolments estimates.

The figures show that ITP domestic EFTS went up by 9.4% for the first four months of 2009, when compared to the same period in 2008. Mr Guerin says that ITPNZ has consistently said that numbers were going up 5-10% this year, and the early results for 2009 are at the upper end of that level.

“Our follow-on point has always been that the Government should work with us to meet higher demand. As has been pointed out in this” newsletter” in recent weeks, the Government has turned down options to expand enrolments.”

After the April enrolment figures were released, Mrs Tolley suggested in Parliament that projections based on April enrolments have “proved to be unreliable in the past, sometimes quite spectacularly so“.

According to Mr Guerin, the TEC approached ITPNZ in July last year with concerns that April 2008 enrolments were tracking below plan projections. They noted that April 2008 enrolments were 60% of plan projections, whereas April” 2007 enrolments had been 64%” of final 2007 enrolments.

But final 2008 enrolments were 97-98% of plan enrolments (or 2-3% off), so that the April 2008 figures that were 4% off actually were quite close to the final result.

“We suggest that officials” check the numbers they’re giving the Minister, as the only spectacular thing going on is enrolment demand,” Mr Guerin said..”

“We are quite confident that April 2009 enrolment figures represent potential full-year enrolments for ITPs. Actual full-year enrolments are likely to be lower for one simple reason – the Government’s decision not to relax the capping system on ITPs, so that the potential sanctions for exceeding the cap” will lead ITPs to restrict enrolments for the rest of the year.”

Also in Tertiary Update this week:

  1. Student drinking harms tertiary communities
  2. 200,000 students seek protection from PTEs
  3. Waikato’s” anti-neo-Nazi thesis back on shelves
  4. Symposium to address workforce literacy
  5. Confusion over British university fees
  6. Obama backs community colleges

TEU Tertiary Update is published weekly on Thursdays and distributed freely to members of the Tertiary Education Union and others. You can subscribe to Tertiary Update by email or feed reader. Back issues are available on the TEU website. Direct inquiries should be made to Stephen Day, email:

Thanks to Dukal @ Flickr for the image

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